Consumer Confidence Index of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau Hong Kong consumer confidence is low, dropping to the lowest point in recent years
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau for the second quarter of 2019 was announced on July 8, 2019. It shows that the overall Hong Kong CCI was 77.7, down 10.5% year on year (YoY) and 4.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ). This represents the lowest level over past five years. All sub-indices were lower than 100, showing that Hong Kong consumers lack confidence in the following six economic areas.
Significant drop in confidence in economic development and property purchases
The overall sub-index of Hong Kong people towards economic development was 79.2 (Table 1), down 23.5% YoY and 13.4% QoQ, indicating that consumer confidence in economic development decreased a lot from the previous quarter. The result for the present economic situation was 89.2 (Table 2), a decline of 5.4% QoQ. The result for economic confidence in the next three months was 72.5 (Table 2), a considerable decrease of 19.1% QoQ, which demonstrates that Hong Kong citizens have more concern about the economic situation in the coming three months.
The overall sub-index of 51.1 (Table 1) shows that property purchases remains the area in which Hong Kong people have the least confidence. The index experienced a dramatic YoY (compared to Q2 2018) improvement of 22.5%, but a decline of 11% QoQ. The result for current property purchases was 45.3 (Table 2), down a considerable 16.4% QoQ. Consumer confidence in property purchases in the next three months was 55 (Table 2), down 7.6% QoQ. This demonstrates that consumer confidence in purchasing property was even lower than in the first quarter of 2019.
Slight decrease in confidence in commodity prices and stock investments
The overall index for commodity prices was 67.6 (Table 1), representing a slight decrease YoY and QoQ. The sub-index of commodity prices was 58.9 (Table 2), a significant decrease of 13.8% QoQ. The result for the next three months was 73.3 (Table 2), an increase of 3.8% QoQ. This indicates that Hong Kong people are not very satisfied with current commodity prices, but their confidence is somewhat higher regarding the next three months.
The overall sub-index for stock investments was 77.1 (Table 1), down 14.2% YoY and 3.4% QoQ. The result for present stock investments was 75.6 (Table 2), a decrease of 3.7% QoQ. Consumer confidence in investing in stocks in the next three months was 78.1 (Table 2), a drop of 3.2% QoQ. These results demonstrate a lack of confidence in stock investments among Hong Kong people from both an absolute and relative value perspective.
Steady confidence in employment
The sub-index result of Hong Kong people towards employment was 91.9 (Table 1), basically the same QoQ, but a YoY decline of 16.4%. The result for the present employment situation was 103.9 (Table 2), up 8.9% QoQ. The sub-index result for employment confidence in the next three months was 84 (Table 2), a decrease of 6.2% QoQ. This indicates that local confidence in employment has become stronger, but expectations for the employment situation in next three months are lower.
Slight increase in confidence in the standard of living
The sub-index result for the standard of living was 99.1 (Table 1), making this the area in which Hong Kong people have the most confidence. The overall result fell 7.7% YoY, but improved by 3.3% QoQ. The result for the current situation was 111.2 (Table 2), an increase of 4.7% QoQ. Confidence in the standard of living for the next three months was 91 (Table 2), up slightly by 2.2% QoQ. This indicates that local confidence in the standard of living remains steady.
The overall results fell considerably QoQ, and were at the lowest level in the last five years, reflecting an overall lack of confidence among Hong Kong consumers. These results are largely due to the decline in residents' confidence in economic development and home purchases, but this is also associated with instability in Hong Kong’s political environment in the past month.
Media enquiries:
Dr Geoffrey Tso Kwok-fai
Associate Head, Associate Professor and Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8568 or (852) 9020 9996
Ms Cao Yiran
Research assistant
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8657 or (852) 6350 2904
Appendix A: Notes for Data Collection
City University of Hong Kong is responsible for the data collection for the captioned investigation. The survey for the CCI in second quarter of 2019 was conducted by telephone interview from 31 May to 30 June 2019. A random sampling procedure was adopted, and 1,005 interviews were conducted with local residents aged 18 or above. The survey results have a 95% confidence level, and the sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Appendix B: Notes for the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index was launched in the first quarter of 2009 and has been released on a quarterly basis since then. The overall consumer confidence score is an integrated index, measuring consumer sentiment about economic development, employment, commodity prices, standard of living, property purchases and stock investments. It reflects the confidence level of consumers in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The index is jointly compiled by Capital University of Economics and Business, the Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, Macau University of Science and Technology, and Taipei Medical University.
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index uses a scale of 0 to 200, with 0 representing “no confidence” and 200 representing “complete confidence”. If the index is below 100, it suggests consumers “lack confidence”, while if it is above 100, it suggests “relative confidence”.
